Futuristic Betting at VisWeek 2009.

So I went to IEEE VisWeek 2009, and it was far more awesome and enjoyable than even my most optimistic expectations. Besides contributing to the tweetstorm (see #visweek) but not being able to liveblog due to higher priority activities, attending paper presentations and chatting with as many cool people as possible (much higher priority activities), this year I’ve also made a number of elaborate bets with a subset of said cool people concerning the future of our technology. If all goes according to plan, the bets’ll end up being visionary, if not, they might be slightly embarrassing and we’ll have a good laugh at VisWeek 2019.

Because these bets only realise in 10 or 20 years, I’ve told my betting partners that I would write it up on my blog so that we could check in that much time, and that they would then owe me copious amounts of beer. This also gives them the opportunity to check my wording for suitability, as we might have to cleave hairs when the time comes.

Bet #1: At VisWeek 2019, I and at least one other person will be wearing a HUD pretty much all the time, OR I will have at least one bionic eye.

Courtesy of Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft.

Courtesy of Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft.

I made this bet with the infamous Dr. Bob Laramee, proprietor of the 5-star webpage.  This came up in a conversation about having some form of non-intrusive display device always available with which things could be looked up, relatively unobtrusively, during for example a conversation.

I do expect that sometime within the next 10 years, HUDs (heads-up display) will be offered as an option with every new set of spectacles.  This is definitely not a push-over bet, but that makes it all the more exciting.

I’m not sure how the bionic eye clause slipped in there, honestly!

Bet #2: 19.5 years from now, there will be more cars with alternative propulsion systems than there are cars with fossil-fuel based internal combustion engines.

This one was made with Dr Helmut Doleisch, linked view data analysis guru and now CEO of SimVis (hey man, BUY THEIR SOFTWARE!).  He is concerned with all the vested interests in fossil-fuel combustion, whereas I think that 19.5 years is more than enough time to introduce non-fossil fuel based propulsion systems on the road, so much so that less than 50% of cars on the road will have need of fossil fuel.

Brazil with its 190 million inhabitants is an interesting example in this regard: A large number of their cars already run on either gasoline or sugarcane ethanol – clearly a great step in the direction of non-fossil fuel options.

Bet #3: In 2029, distributed conferences with tele-presence will be common.

In this case, the beer-donor is Dr Stefan Bruckner, master of all things volume visualisation and father of the VolumeShop software system.  My contention is that in 20 years, conferences where attendees take part via tele-presence systems, whatever they may be, will be common-place.

I’ve called one of the models I envision of this “clustered telepresence”, which would entail that groups of attendees would indeed gather physically, but that these remote clusters would be connected by advanced tele-presence systems, involving advanced displays (think very large, or perhaps even some form of mobile volumetric displays) and distributed and mobile sound.

During the discussion preceding the making of this bet, valid concerns were raised with regard to the efficacy of remote socialising, especially beer-drinking.  I agree that this is an issue of utmost importance, but still contend that technology and efficiency concerns will conspire to address this problem in a way that is at least good enough to fool, to a sufficient extent, all parties involved.

13 Comments

  • Those bets are rather geeky.

  • BTW, the latest and greatest 6 star web page
    can be found here:

    http://cs.swan.ac.uk/~cstony/research/star/

    -cheers, bob

  • I think you are in for a lot of beer in 2029. Hmmm ‘tele-presence’ drinking sessions in the DROS. We’ll just have to find a way to make it the old DROS again, or create an illusion. Definitely possibilities here.

    • @Gustav!!! Great to see you here!

      Thank you for supporting me in my beer-drinking endeavours. I’ll see you in the VirtuaDROS as soon as that’s possible.

  • If these bets come true, this post will go down into the annals of blogging history. If they don’t, we can still drink beer to celebrate. Cheers to that!

    Who’d like to bet on planetary colonisation, gaming interfaces, books vs. e-paper and the ultimate degradation of civilisation through reality-TV?

  • Great idea to write these up so that we don’t forget about it :)

    btw, did you already see Gordon, the new star on Youtube?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSzTb2_100Y

    cheers, helmut

    • Brilliant Helmut, thanks for sending the link to Gordon’s ukelele performance!

  • Miskien iets vir jou:

    http://www2.brighthub.com/writers/writers.html

    Vandag daarop afgekom, kon onthou jy’t ooit iets geblog oor skryfwerk. Maybe just check it out.

  • looks like I’m going to win my bet … even though it’s still a long way until 2029 ;-)

    http://futurezone.orf.at/stories/1646254/

    hope you can get some of the german?

    cu you soon again man, for some more betting or at least debating? ;-)

    cheers

    • haha I’m not so sure… so the article says 2050 for there to be *only* electric cars. My bet said that in 2030 there would be *more* alternative propulsion cars on the road than fossil fuel. :)

      Yes, we need more bets and more debating. VCBM or EuroVis, or BOTH?

      • haha, you only understood half of it.

        the article says, that 2050 there will be approximately 5M (Million) E-cars in Austria, nearly 75% of the then expected 7M cars overall!

        furtheron it says that today, there are 436 E-cars. For 2010 they expect ~ 200.000, for 2025 ~700.000 and for 2030 ~1.600.000 E-cars. Which is still less than half of the current >4M cars … so lets see, how other european countries will do ;-)

        at least it looks like an interesint and open bet until long from now *haha*

        EuroVis definitly, VCBM if Steffen accepts our Poster ;-)

        cheers

        • sorry I meant for 2020 they expect 200.000 E-cars in Austria!

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